A new congressional map designed to redraw Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver into a solidly Republican seat officially passed the Missouri General Assembly on Friday. But the state’s complex ballot referendum process means the GOP’s newfound 7-1 gerrymander is not yet a done deal.
Because of the sheer number of possible developments at play, including several ongoing legal challenges, we are waiting to shift our rating of the 5th District from Solid Democrat to Solid Republican. We will revisit the rating in December, at which point it will be more clear whether
opponents of the new map have the ability to stall or halt its implementation entirely.
Legal and political hurdles confront Republicans’ map
The Constitution of Missouri explicitly states that the people “reserve power to approve or reject by referendum any act of the general assembly,” with limited exceptions for legislation that includes an emergency clause. The redistricting bill passed by Republicans last week lacked the votes for such a
clause, kickstarting an organizational sprint by Democratic-aligned groups to give voters a direct say on the proposed map at the ballot box.
If organizers gather the necessary signatures in time, the proposed map will be put on pause until voters weigh in on it at the polls. Though the default date for a referendum would be Nov. 3, 2026, it’s likely that Republicans would choose to call a special election to settle the map well before the
midterm elections. Otherwise, Missouri’s 2026 congressional elections would still be held under the current lines.
Shortly after HB 1 cleared the state Senate, liberal activists filed a petition for a referendum on the bill. The group leading the charge, People NOT Politicians, is supported by a patchwork of organizations that include state chapters of the AFL-CIO, NAACP and Planned Parenthood.
Under the state Constitution, the group has 90 days from the Sept. 12 conclusion of the special legislative session — until Dec. 11 — to collect the requisite signatures to force a referendum on the new map. Organizers must collect a number of signatures equal to 5% of the most recent gubernatorial vote total in six of the state’s eight current congressional districts. That means they’ll need anywhere from 15,596 to 21,570 signatures per district, depending on which six seats they target.
If activists fail to acquire the necessary signatures by Dec. 11, the redrawn map will take effect upon being signed by Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe. The new boundaries would transform the 5th District from a seat that opted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by 23 points into one that would have
backed President Donald Trump by some 18 points, carving up the Democratic stronghold of Kansas City in the process.
But opponents of the redrawn map are optimistic that voters in deep red Missouri will buck party politics and reject the new gerrymander, noting the state’s recent independent streak in initiatives and referendums. Missouri’s most recent referendum occurred in 2018, when voters decisively opted
to reject a right-to-work law passed by the Republican-controlled General Assembly. During that process, labor organizers managed to collect more than three times the necessary number of signatures to put the bill up for a public vote.
In a 2020 citizen-led ballot initiative, voters chose to expand Medicaid by a 53%-47% vote over the wishes of the state’s Republican leaders. Two years later, Missourians opted to legalize marijuana by a similar 53%-47% margin. Voters have rejected actions by the General Assembly all but twice in the 27 times a referendum has made its way onto the ballot, according to the Missouri Independent.
Richard von Glahn, an organizer who helped spearhead previous statewide ballot campaigns, is among those leading the charge for a referendum on HB 1. He says opposition to the GOP’s proposed gerrymander has been fierce, adding that 200 people signed up to volunteer for People NOT
Politicians within the first 30 minutes of the new map’s passage.
“Based on the response I’m hearing from people, we’re going to get the signatures,” von Glahn said in a Saturday interview with The Cook Political Report.
Barring an unexpected second special session, the General Assembly is not scheduled to reconvene until Jan. 7. Because filing for congressional races closes on March 31, legislators will either have to schedule the referendum to take place prior to that date or pass a law to push the filing deadline until
after a referendum has been held.
Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins, who is responsible for verifying the collected signatures, could try to delay certification of the signatures to stall activists’ efforts. But opponents are prepared to sue Hoskins if he attempts to do so and insist that his role in the process is purely administrative. GOP officials have no incentive to drag the process out once the signatures become certified, since the map wouldn’t take effect until it goes to a public vote.
Regardless of how the referendum plays out, the new map is certain to face legal challenges. The American Civil Liberties Union has already filed a lawsuit challenging the legitimacy of mid-decade redistricting in Missouri. Democrats could also attempt to litigate the map before a federal court by arguing that its tinkering with Black precincts in St. Louis violates the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
Republicans are eager to enact the new map and may try to find fresh legal avenues to block activists’ attempts to secure a referendum. But a winding path remains before this map is actually put in use for 2026.